Lumina at INFORMS Analytics in Chicago

April 10 - April 12, 2011

Please come and meet us in person at the INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics and Operations Research at the Marriott Chicago Downtown Magnificent Mile between Sunday April 10th and Tuesday Apr il12th, 2011. 

Attend one of our workshops for special discounts on Analytica. Workshop attendees who are new to Analytica will receive a free trial of our Optimizer software and a 20% discount on any future purchase of Analytica.

Free Exhibition and Workshop Pass

We will be glad to send you (and your colleagues) a FREE pass to the INFORMS conference, if you aren't registered for the conference. Please email or call 650-212-1212 by Friday, April 1 so we can mail you one.

Exhibition Hall

Visit our booth (#2) at the INFORMS exhibit hall

Attend a Workshop

 

Software Tutorial, Tuesday April 12, 3:30-4:30pm

Lumina Decision Systems, Inc. - Analytica: What it does that spreadsheets can't 
Presenter Paul Sanford, Consulting Decision Analyst

Experienced analysts prefer Analytica to spreadsheets because of its visual influence diagrams, Intelligent Arrays, fast Monte Carlo, and scalability. Users say that they can build, verify and analyze models in a quarter to half the time it takes with a spreadsheet. Because it's designed by expert modelers, it's also an ideal tool for teaching students the art of effective modeling.

Technology Workshop, Sunday April 10, 12:00-3:00pm

Introduction to Structured Optimization with Analytica
Presenter Paul Sanford, Consulting Decision Analyst

Optimization models traditionally use cryptic coding and can be cumbersome to develop. Enhancements new to Analytica Optimizer 4.3 bring the transparency and flexibility of hierarchical influence diagrams, intelligent arrays and uncertainty analysis to these classes of applications. In this workshop, we will start with a general introduction to Analytica and then walk through some example models of structured optimization. We will demonstrate powerful new features in Analytica Optimizer 4.3 that enable modelers to build models easily and collaborate more effectively using a visual influence diagram environment. Bring a laptop if you can, because this workshop will be interactive. Workshop attendees will receive special offers including a trial edition of Analytica 4.3!

Attend a Presentation

 

Focused Topic: Risk Analysis Presentation
Tuesday April 12, 2011, 4:40pm-5:30pm

Expecting the Unexpected: Coping with Surprises in Probabilistic and Scenario Forecasting
Max Henrion, PhD, Chief Executive Officer, Lumina Decision Systems, Inc.

The notion of "Black Swans,” reinforced by the financial debacles of 2008, confirms decades of research on expert judgment and centuries of anecdotes about the perils of prediction: Our forecasts are consistently overconfident and we are too often surprised. Henrion will explain why forecasters, risk analysts, and R&D portfolio managers should embrace the inevitable uncertainties using scenarios or probability distributions. He will describe a range of practical methods including:

The value of knowing how little you know — why and when to treat uncertainty explicitly,
Elicitation of expert judgment and how to minimize cognitive biases,
Using Monte Carlo for probabilistic forecasting and risk analysis,
Calibrating probabilistic forecasts against the historical distributions of forecast errors and surprises,
Brainstorming to identify "Gray Swans" — surprises that are foreseeable, but ignored in conventional forecasting.

Participants will come away with a deeper understanding of when and how to apply these methods.